It’s going to be a really rich week for Disney’s Frozen 2, so, exhibitors expect a lot of popcorn sales.
Let’s start with the build of it all: Pic’s official weekend came in at $130.2M, which has we’ve been sayin’ is the best animated pic launch ever in November. Today, with 41% K-12 schools out and 14% colleges, I understand Monday will deliver around $16M for the Jennifer Lee-Chris Buck directed sequel. By the end of Thanksgiving, which will see business during the evening shows after dinner, Frozen 2 per industry estimates should stand at $200M stateside; that’s bolstered by 100% schools off on Thursday and Friday. Don’t forget, Black Friday is one of the most lucrative moviegoing days of the year. Tack on a second estimated weekend of $84M, -35%, and Frozen 2 could climb to $284M in 10 days.
Then Lionsgate/Media Rights Capital’s Rian Johnson-directed whodunit Knives Out should fill the bill for guys and older moviegoers. The pic already bagged $2M from 936 theaters over Friday and Saturday night previews. What’s notable about that is that most paid previews of late are boosted by Fandango, Atom Tickets or Amazon marketing. Knives Out was an organic push by major and regional exhibition partners. Previews start again tomorrow night at 7PM. Tracking is seeing $25M-$29M over the Wednesday to Sunday stretch but $30M+ isn’t unreasonable for this 96% certified fresh ensemble with Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Jamie Lee Curtis, Ana de Armas and more. Pic, booked at 3,300 locations, cost $40M before digital print and advertising costs. Knives Out is also breaking out in nine offshore territories including United Kingdom, Australia, France, New Zealand, South Africa and Benelux.
Universal is opening Makeready/Bron Studio’s African American drama Queen & Slim starring Daniel Kaluuya and Jodie Turner-Smith about a couple’s first date that’s thrown into disarray when a cop pulls them over. The pic, financed by Makeready for around $17M is looking to gross $12M-$16M over 5 days. RT score is at 85% fresh. Box office comparisons, which are all 3-day debuts, include Focus Features’ BlacKkKlansman ($10.8M), 20th Century Fox’s Widows ($12.3M opening), Lionsgate’s Acrimony ($17.1M opening) and Uni’s Breaking In ($17.6M). Melina Matsoukas directed the feature which was written by Lena Waithe with story by James Frey and Waithe. Pic opens Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Sony/TriStar’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is looking at a 5-day of $13M after a $13.2M opening. Broken out, the Mister Rogers Tom Hanks movie is looking at a second weekend of $8.5M, -37%.